They may not be your favorite but you can’t stop partaking and eventually some gets stuck in your teeth.

 
First off let me just say that the last year has been quite hit or miss on here lately and for that I apologize. I have a few thoughts I just had to get out this morning, hence the reason for this post. They have to do with the this current political clime we find ourselves in. (And a huge shout out to the 4 people who consistently read here. You’re beautiful people.)
Now, I consider myself to be a political junkie of sorts and I’d like to focus on the Republican side of this thing because I just find it more interesting. But first a word about the Democrat side.

Democrats

 

I find it uninteresting mainly because it is only a race between two people and has been since they started. And truly they remind me of two siblings at play slap-fighting. One might hit a little harder once and again but otherwise it is a rather tame match. They don’t seem to want to expose weaknesses that could help each other, presumably to help in the general election. But they just lack a sort of je ne sais quoi in the entertainment side of things.

Republicans

 Now on the Republican side you have personalities galore. (Humiliations galore?)


And this Donald Trump thing standing above the rest. Now I’m not here to endorse a candidate or sling mud though I so easily could. No, I’ll leave that to other talking heads. I just wanted to talk quickly about the phenomenon that has Trump in the delegatal (just made up a word, score) lead.

A lot of people say it’s about a referendum on the government or anger or change. And whereas those elements might exist, I think Trump is benefitting from something much more practical. I think his surge of popularity is really more of a ruse due to the fact the there are so many people in the race.
Let’s take a look at an example:

 

  As you can see from the picture, in SC, Trump’s most impressive victory to date he got about 33% of the vote. Rubio at 22% as well as Cruz at 22% followed by the other 3 at around 8% each.

First. I find it interesting that about 67% of SC did NOT vote for Trump.

Second, many polls have shown Trump to date quite bad in alternate voting. That is to say if a person’s candidate is not available who he/she like for asecond choice. He doesn’t do well in the category.

So it seems, 30-35% of the population are ardent Trump fans. And while that may be significant and helping him win primaries, that also means 65-70% aren’t. Now Jeb is out and his supporters will indelibly vote for other candidates but that I think will only hurt Trump in the long run. Sure some of Jeb’s supporters might turn to Trump though I doubt it considering their feud. But take his 8%, couple it with Kasich’s 8% (who is out of money) and Carson’s 8% (who has no real shot at this point) and spread it all out among the other serious candidates.



Take those three out prior to South Carolina, and I think you have Trump losing SC. And if not he only squeaks by.

If and when the bottom three (now two) exit the race will be telling in Trump’s success from here on out. Should it become a three man race and he continue to win, then call it a referendum or will of the voters, but at this point I think it’s more about plurality of alternate choices than anything else.